Record Arctic Warming

This topic has conflictinginterpretations all over the place.  Fromhere it appears that the Arctic atmosphere has been warmer for a full fiveyears.  Yet at the same time we are dulyinformed by the Navy that ice thickness has largely recovered to its precedingthickness.  Generally all other evidenceappears to support a warmer Arctic and progressiveice loss.  The anomaly is the Navy’sreport and it is the one I want to actually accept.

Other climate issues outside thearctic appear to fit inside pretty conventional expectations and a rare recorddoes get broken.  A jet stream shift madelife miserable throughout the USthis year yet so what!  It will happenagain in a few decades.

The Arcticis a different matter. We had been led to believe that a substantial amount ofthe arctic ice mass had been removed in the past three decades.  The question was why?

The best answer appears to be amodest increase in the influx of warm Gulf Streamwater.  Evidence of such possibilitiesabound in the geological record and is reasonable as an aftermath of theobvious down shift precipitating the little ice age of around 1700 AD.

Further work suggests we areentering the mid section of a thousand year current driven heat cycle.

Thus a warming Arcticis reasonable.  Yet the apparent icereversal is contraindicative.  Forreasons as yet not understood, it may simply not be real.  Or the currents may well have changed again.

The sea level prognostications here are rubbish.

Record Arctic warming to boost sea level rise

by Staff Writers

Oslo (AFP) May3, 2011

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Record_Arctic_warming_to_boost_sea_level_rise_999.html

Record warming in the Arctic over the past six years will substantiallycontribute to a global sea level rise of up to 1.6 meters by 2100, according toa study published in OsloTuesday.

"Surface air temperatures in the Arctic since 2005 have beenhigher than for any five-year period since measurements began around1880," the Arctic Monitoring andAssessment Programme (AMAP) said.

"In the future, global sea level is projected to rise by 0.9 to1.6 meters (2.95 to 5.25 feet) by 2100 and the loss of ice from Arcticglaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland IceSheet will make a substantial contribution to this," the authors of thestudy said, stressing, however "that high uncertainty surrounds estimatesof future global sea level."

The melting of polar region ice could have disastrous effects on lowaltitude coastal regions, including in faraway regions.

Temperatures are rising twice as quickly in the Arctic as on the restof the planet, and "in the future, average autumn-winter temperatures inthe Arctic are projected to increase evenmore," the authors said.

The hike would amount to 3.0 to 7.0 degrees Celsius (5.4 to 12.6 degreesFahrenheit) by 2080, they said.

"And the Arctic Ocean ispredicted to be nearly ice free in summer during this century. Likely withinthe next 30 to 40 years," they added.

The full report will be presented at a meeting of Arctic Council membercountries the United States,Canada, Russia, Norway,Denmark, Sweden, Finlandand Iceland in the Greenland capital Nuuk on May 12.

The AMAP was set up in 1991 by the eight Arctic Council members.